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>There's no amount of economic policy you can do to predict a war.

You can't predict a war, but you can secure your supplies of basic commodities against it, preferably by producing them domestically.



US production of energy (coal, natural gas, and even petroleum) is almost entirely domestic.

The entirety of this year's fluctuations isn't because "we don't have oil/energy", but because global oil/energy prices were changing. In fact, USA exports more energy than we import.

So the higher price of energy is "good" for the US economy, as our companies obtain higher profits. Nonetheless, it still means higher prices at the gas pump and other inflationary measures.

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Just having a domestic base of energy didn't do jack diddly squat for oil prices. Oil prices will rise and fall with geopolitical reasons.

Now USA has a domestic energy source, which gives us a leg up compared to say, Germany, who was relying upon natural gas from a country to their East. But this has to do with supply of energy more so than price.

Energy prices are also floating upon the weather. La Nina this year will give us a mild winter, meaning Europe won't need as much natural gas... which counter-acts the war somewhat. We're lucky that Mother Nature smiles upon us this year...




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