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>Isn't [curve fitting] all of science?

No! Astronomical observations can be shoehorned into geocentrism by adding more and more epicycles. That's curve fitting. At some point you have to realize the Earth revolves around the sun. Currently ML is on a dangerous path because any disagreement with empirical evidence can just be waved away with more data, more computation power, etc. In that sense, it's practically unfalsifiable.

http://wiki.c2.com/?AddingEpicycles



Only if you don't have a complexity penalty in your fit. This is a model selection problem and you should have a prior on the structure of the model that leads to something like the BIC. Curve fitting is hard. The elimination of epicycles was due to Tyco Brahe collecting more data and a lower complexity model being proposed to explain the data.




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