your attempting to dismiss the reality of empirically proven occurrences with hand waving. I have no interest in engaging in such a pointless discussion. NASA, the manhattan project, and other endeavors ALL generated giant economic returns from their outputs.
you can hand wave 'possible alternative realities' all you want but the fact is they triggered those economic returns. spacex would be another (recent) example of a primarily NASA funded endeavor that will generate massive returns in the future and would not exist without said funding.
The handwaving is on your side. How could it be otherwise? To demonstrate a spinoff effect, you have to show that the technology would not have been developed otherwise. But such contrafactual history is just about impossible to prove. And in technology, it's almost always the case that technologies come about because it's time for them to come about (it's "steam engine time"), not because of one irreplaceable inventor or group.
> the fact is they triggered those economic returns.
Your blind faith in this dogma is touching, but it isn't supported by real evidence. For example, if you examine what actually happened, the NASA role in developing integrated circuits was rather minor.
you can hand wave 'possible alternative realities' all you want but the fact is they triggered those economic returns. spacex would be another (recent) example of a primarily NASA funded endeavor that will generate massive returns in the future and would not exist without said funding.
anyways good luck.