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That assumes interests rates are set by the free market, which is not true in todays economy.

The reason interest rates are going up is not a mystery. A dozen people meet semi-quarterly and vote on what the interest rate should be.



I’m not sure your point contradicts the hypothesis though. Stability is the whole point of macroeconomic policy, and central bankers instituting a high interest rate is absolutely a sign that they believe some instability is coming.




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