Tech as an investment has been doing well, and that's what he is talking about. The labor market is something else. I expect a tech crash eventually that will nuke the stock market, but good luck predicting it.
Tech stocks are the market now. If you bought Nasdaq before, at peak or after dotcom bust, then you had to wait 15 years to "break even". If you bet against tech stocks (e.g. buy S&P500) then you're down.
It is historically risky to bet against the US stock market.
It's not risky to stay on the sidelines when the market is so overvalued. This is what Warren Buffet is doing. Regardless of what you think of him, he is more sophisticated than we are. Hindsight is 20/20. The market also drops every 5-10 years by 30-50%. If you take a 50% loss even once, your money has to work way harder just to get you back to where you were before. I mean, you need to double your money to recover from a 50% downfall, which is way harder than you think and prone to another major drop. Therefore, it is worth exercising some caution in your investments. If returns look too good to be true, they probably are.
Spelling his name wrong will generally bias people against your financial opinions.
> I mean, you need to double your money to recover from a 50% downfall
Nonsensical argument if you already doubled your money by being in the market for a long time - which appears to be especially true for tech stocks. Buffett talks about "time in the market".
Timing the market is often regarded as gambling: maybe because the idea is so alluring.
Disclaimer: I like trying to time the market, even though I believe the experts that say I shouldn't. Sold all crypto related investments about a month ago (not just timing, also opinion from looking at how crypto is used while I was travelling in Argentina, and other reasons). I believe any investment should have multiple good reasons, and can maybe have one or two poor reasons too!!!
I don't think it's impossible to time markets. But it is really hard to do. If you think buying something overpriced in a bubble is worth the risk, I would argue it is you who is timing the market. Either you think you can pull out fast enough (a MUCH harder timing problem than figuring out when to get in), or else you think that the market will never get wise to the bad value.
>Spelling his name wrong will generally bias people against your financial opinions.
Yeah let me worry about that as I type it on a phone with an unruly keyboard lol.
>Perhaps listen to Buffett and Charlie saying they didn't time markets
Where did I say you should time it? I just said, don't invest in things that are obviously overvalued. Buffett is having trouble finding anything that isn't overvalued, so his cash stockpile is growing. You can view that as timing the market or whatever, but the bottom line is that buying overvalued stuff is a guaranteed loser. And when prices come down, you need to have money available to buy anything that is at a reasonable price. Of course inflation makes it difficult to figure if prices are actually good or not, and makes it harder to preserve value while waiting for a good buy. But it's a lot safer to try to do that in general.
