It will be interesting to see when sodium ion production ramps up in the US and EU. China is far ahead with this. As it was with LFP for the last few years. CATL is actually ramping up production for their second generation sodium ion battery already. They've been producing the first generation for a few years already. Sodium ion is going to be double digit percentages of the battery market in a few years. Like LFP is today. In China at least.
The advantage is not only cost but also longevity. LFP and sodium ion batteries might have decades of useful life. With thousands of charge cycles, you could be charging them on a daily basis and it would be fine. NMC only has about 1000-1500 cycles. Some LFP batteries do 3-4x better than that. Sodium ion even better.
Sodium ion is more useful (relatively speaking) for grid backing than cars. Weight and power density aren't so much of an issue in that application, longevity and price definitely is. So they can probably pivot if the administration starts trying to mess with the electric car market.
Depends, people think in terms of sports car level performance that they desire. But there's a reason the Ford Pinto used to be more popular and common than a Ferrari. It's actually a good enough car for many people.
For the average cheap clunker that you drive around town you neither need a big nor a fast battery. Chinese cheap cars (the type the US consumer can't even imagine is feasible) come with cheap batteries. Which means LFP or sodium ion in China. Cheap here means 5-10K$. For the car. With the battery. Not just the difference between the cheap and the more expensive battery upgrade (as is common in the US). Making a car cost effectively at those price levels means compromises. It's not going to have seat warmers. And you might have to open the window manually. And it won't drive to the moon and back on a single charge. But it will get you to work just fine.
Something like the Slate truck doesn't need top spec batteries. It just needs a decently sized battery. The cheapest one will have a 52kwh battery, apparently. LFP would be a good default. But it would still be a decent truck with a cheaper, lower capacity sodium ion battery. And since there is a 84.3 kwh option, there is some wiggle room for variations in size, weight, and energy density.
At 52kwh, it's not going to break distance records. If you need that, get the bigger battery. But otherwise lots of people get by with cars with ranges below 100 miles. Anybody that has an old Nissan Leaf falls into this bucket. They shipped with something like 60-70 miles of range. If you replace the battery you'll double the range because batteries have improved over time. Loads of them still drive with their original batteries. Nice car to buy second hand for next to nothing. Useful range. Dirt cheap to own and drive. Really affordable at this point.
The notion of buying the battery you need at a reasonable price vs. the range monster you think you need because you are a nervous and range anxious wreck is distorting this discussion.
People: I absolutely must have >500 miles range because I never stop and have a bladder of steel and easily can go without breaks for eight hours. The notion of stopping for 30-40 minutes freaks me out. The horror! I absolutely must have this and I'm going to sell my kidney to get it.
Reality, mr. Joe Average is middle aged, needs to go to the bath room regularly (especially after drinking coffee) because middle aged people just are like that. He isn't super wealthy and he lives 25 miles from work. Which is where he goes every day. He might go on a weekend trip. 50-60 miles is the bare minimum of what he needs. With a safety margin and some convenience, 150 would be fine and also accommodate for cold weather and unplanned excursions. 200 would be comfortable. 300 miles would mean the car lasts the whole week and only needs to be charged on the weekend. He drives his average 12K miles per year (230/week).
Some people genuinely need more. Most people (the average ones) really don't. They just think they do.
Also worth keeping in mind that "degradation" usually means the battery holds 80% of original charge. Basically your range shrinks from 300 miles to 240 miles. Automobile with 240 miles range is still a very useful car.
> when sodium ion production ramps up in the US and EU
The Ultium announcement isn't Li-S related but but number of battery plant announcements over the past 5 years in the US (as well as Japan) have been plants that can support both LFP and Li-S battery manufacturing.
Japanese, Korean, and American automotive and battery vendors have been aligned on this from a capital and IP perspective for a LONG time.
The advantage is not only cost but also longevity. LFP and sodium ion batteries might have decades of useful life. With thousands of charge cycles, you could be charging them on a daily basis and it would be fine. NMC only has about 1000-1500 cycles. Some LFP batteries do 3-4x better than that. Sodium ion even better.